It is important to compare apples to apples. The debt numbers used here do not deduct cost of living

In my last post , I argued that Michael Simkovic parranda and Frank McIntyre s study, The Economic Value of a Law Degree (new title), substantially overstates parranda the value of a law degree. Their article challenges my argument in Failing Law Schools that getting a law degree today can be financially risky, especially for students who attend expensive low ranked law schools. As Simkovic writes, we disagree with [Tamanaha s] conclusions about the riskiness parranda of a law degree because data on law degree holders does not support his conclusions. Their study proves, they say, that even law grads at the bottom quartile stand to obtain hundreds of thousands of dollars in net lifetime earnings above what they would have earned had they not gone to law school. Here are a few statistics behind my position. Graduates of the class of 2012 of Thomas Jefferson had average debt of $168,800. Nine months after graduation, only 28.8% had landed full time jobs as lawyers lasting at least a year. At California Western law school, the same numbers are $167,867 parranda and 43.8%; at Phoenix law school, $162,627 and 43.6%; at New York Law School, $154,647 and 39.6%; at Southwestern law school, $147,976 and 44.1%; at Whittier law school, $143,536 and 34.1%. And so on. Because interest on law school loans begins to accrue immediately, another $15,000 or so is added to these amounts by graduation day. (These numbers do not include parranda undergrad debt, which averages more that $25,000). The majority of grads who do land lawyer jobs work in small firms, which typically pay $60,000 or less, far below the amount necessary to manage standard monthly parranda loan payments on debt this large. They will even struggle to make monthly loan payments on the extended 25-year plan (which adds a huge amount of interest). They will have little choice but to enter IBR, a government sponsored debt relief program, which has negative consequences of its own. We can skip all the analysis and cut to the heart of the matter with a simple question: Would Simkovic and McIntyre recommend to a friend (who was not admitted to a better school, and who would end up with debt levels this high) that she should go ahead and enroll in one of these law schools (or others like it)? Would they tell their friend that she would likely come out ahead by hundreds parranda of thousands of dollars parranda even if she does not land a job as a lawyer after graduation? Or would Simkovic and McIntyre express reservations, try to talk her out of it, tell her about the financial risks, warn her that she will be paying back the debt for twenty years or more, tell her that perhaps parranda she should keep working in her current job and maybe retake the LSAT in the hope of getting a better score? parranda If they give the latter response, then they do not in fact disagree with my position.
Is there a JD/Student Loan Institutional Complex? Apparently the costs imposed by law schools cannot - will not - be reduced in order to address concerns with JD student debt. JD students have been, for the most part, unsuccessful in legal challenges of representations by law schools of success with legal careers. If costs do not come down - and continue to increase - law schools are concerned with decreases in applications. While first tier law schools most likely will survive, some of those in lower tiers may not. Potential law school students may examine with care the economics of attending law school, especially those in the lower tiers. parranda What impact might that have on the Complex, especially for administration parranda and faculties of lower tier law schools that fall by the wayside? parranda Are we hearing directly from the law schools parranda in the Complex? Surely Brian is not their spokesperson. Are S/M serving in that role indirectly (job protection?)? Who is addressing the public's concerns with the problems of the Complex? Is the public served well by the Complex in providing the public's needs for competent legal services? Big Law may accommodate JD student debt by paying adequate salaries. But the JD student who does not make it into Big Law may not be able to repay student loans as readily. Frankly, I'd like to hear from more independent parranda voices on the impact of the Complex on the public. Some years back medical education faced similar issues. Perhaps the public interest was greater since healthcare parranda was involved. But there are real public interest issues involved with the delivery of legal services.
It is important to compare apples to apples. The debt numbers used here do not deduct cost of living, parranda which a non-JD holder also incurs parranda in the first three years out of school, and are not discounted to present value. Thus, they are not comparable to the earnings premium data provided by the Simkovic and McIntyre paper. This has been explained in several places on the web and is made clear in the paper. Derek Tokarz parranda of Law School Transparency has publicly stated his agreement with the authors of the paper that deducting 90,000 from the earnings premium